The market concentration of the hottest paper indu

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The market concentration of the paper industry is expected to increase

the domestic paper market as a whole is still slightly oversupplied. Under the influence of policies, raw material prices and other factors, the prices of various sub products will rise and fall differently by 2017. We expect that with the acceleration of industry integration in the future, the domestic paper industry will be significantly reduced from the current number of more than 3000 enterprises. The process of increasing industry concentration and eliminating backward production capacity will lead to the increase of gross profit margin of the paper industry and the increase of the leading market share of the industry, which will be of great benefit to the paper industry. Give a positive rating to the whole industry

rising prices of raw materials

timber is also a scarce resource to some extent. In recent years, the demand for wood in China has become stronger and stronger, and the import of wood has increased year by year. Since 2006, the price of imported logs in China has continued to rise. In September 2007, the imported timber volume was 7.9 billion cubic meters, a decrease of 3.1% over the previous month; The average price reached US $141.77 per cubic meter, with a year-on-year increase of 0.4%

by the end of October 2007, the quoted price of needle leaf pulp in the U.S. market had reached $830/ton, an increase of nearly $10 per ton compared with the end of last month; The European market quotation was 583.72 euros/ton, a further decrease of 6.69 euros per ton compared with the end of last month. The quotation of broad-leaved pulp in the U.S. market was $749.26/t, up $29.26/t from the end of last month, or about 4%; The European market quoted 520.90 euros/ton, up 8.71 euros from the end of last month

since October 2007, the main varieties of American waste have increased significantly. Among them, the prices of American waste No. 11 and No. 8 have reached 1631 yuan/ton and 1570 yuan/ton, with a further increase of 31 yuan and 70 yuan per ton compared with the previous month. The main varieties of European waste also increased slightly, of which A5 increased by 38 yuan/ton, and the price reached 1478 yuan/ton; A2 increased by 18 yuan/ton compared with the previous month, and the price reached 1348 yuan/ton. The main domestic demand varieties of daily waste increased by different ranges. The average prices of daily waste No. 11 and No. 8 increased by 60 yuan and 69 yuan/ton respectively compared with the previous month, reaching 1500 yuan/ton and 1509 yuan/ton

product prices rise and fall in different ways

since October 2007, the domestic paper price has been basically the same as that in September, and the average price has remained at 4700 yuan/ton. The price of imported paper has not changed much, with an average price of about 4800 yuan/ton. Due to the increase in the price of domestic paper, the price difference between domestic and foreign paper has gradually decreased. It is expected that the oversupply situation in the paper market will not change in the next few months, the gross profit margin is still hovering at a low level, and it is still difficult for the cost to drive up prices

while the domestic cultural paper market continues to be hot, the prices of book paper and double offset paper continue to rise. Among them, the average price of low-grade cultural paper, that is, book paper, rose by 100 yuan/ton to 4900 yuan/ton. It is expected that the market supply will continue to be tight in the coming months, and the product prices will continue to rise

based on the previous analysis of coated paper market, we believe that the excess supply of coated paper will decrease in the coming months, but the oversupply market situation will continue. In terms of price, both imported and domestic coated paper saw a sharp decline in October. Among them, the imported coated paper fell 340 yuan/ton, back to the level in early September; The average price of domestic coated paper fell by 663 yuan/ton, even lower than the level before the last round of price increase

for box board paper and corrugated paper, since October, the box board paper has declined slightly compared with the previous month. The price of imported and domestic corrugated paper has increased by 50 yuan/ton, reaching 2550 yuan/ton and 2300 yuan/ton respectively. The domestic white cardboard market is still good, with the average price of the product increased by 50 yuan/ton to 7050 yuan per ton. Driven by the price increase of imported products, the price of domestic whiteboard increased by 80 yuan/ton, reaching 4400 yuan per ton

policies guide industrial concentration

the development policy of the paper industry issued by the national development and Reform Commission on October 31, 2007 points out that China will optimize the industrial layout, raw material structure, product structure and enterprise structure, increase innovation, change the growth mode, clarify the industrial access conditions, and build a modern paper industry with the combination of forestry and paper industry, advanced industrial equipment, energy conservation and environmental protection, orderly competition and sustainable development

we believe that the policy will pay more attention to how to improve their long-term competitiveness from the perspective of upstream and downstream integration for listed companies in the industry, instead of simply relying on price war and scale expansion to achieve the improvement of market share. Therefore, enterprises will pay more attention to benefits than to scale, and the value of enterprises is expected to rise to a new level. Secondly, with the rapid increase of industry concentration, the situation that the strong are always strong will be further strengthened. Investing in existing leading companies is still the best choice

energy conservation and emission reduction are urgent, and the sustainable development ability of enterprises is gradually improved. According to the policy, China will vigorously promote cleaner production technology, implement license management for pulp and paper wastewater discharge, and strictly implement national and local discharge standards and total pollutant control indicators. The construction of papermaking forest base must pay attention to ecological protection. At present, China is vigorously promoting energy conservation and emission reduction, eliminating chemical straw pulp production units with an annual output of less than 34000 tons and the production capacity of 6.5 million tons exceeding the standard. The implementation of this policy will contribute to the healthy and long-term development of the industry and enterprises

the policy also clearly points out that it supports domestic enterprises to develop 10 advanced pulp and paper enterprises with an annual output of about 1million tons to 3million tons through mergers, alliances, restructuring and expansion, and to develop several large pulp and paper enterprise groups with international competitiveness that can complete the basic control system of experimental machines by cross regional, cross departmental and cross ownership testers with an annual output of more than 3million tons. By 2010, the new capacity of paper and paperboard will reach 26.5 million tons, the existing backward capacity will be eliminated by 6.5 million tons, and the effective capacity will reach 90million tons. For the existing large-scale paper companies with development potential, the time is coming to become bigger and stronger with the support of government policies. Industrial integration will gradually improve the current price competition situation, promote the orderly competition of the whole industry, and improve the operation efficiency of the industry

we predict that the industrial structure will be laid out from north to south, the cooperation between forestry pulp and paper companies will gradually increase, and the competition for resources will become increasingly fierce. The layout of the paper industry should fully consider fiber resources, water resources, environmental capacity, market demand, transportation and other conditions, give full play to comparative advantages, strive for rational resource allocation and coordinated development with the environment. The overall layout of industrial development should be adjusted from north to south, and the south of the Yangtze River is the key area for the development of paper industry. The policy also encourages the existing forest farms and forestry companies to jointly build a papermaking raw material forest base with domestic pulp and paper enterprises. By 2010, we will strive to achieve the goal of building a paper forest base of 5million hectares and increasing the production capacity of wood pulp by 6.45 million tons. We believe that the battle for resources will begin, non wood pulp resources such as bamboo pulp will be more explored and used, and the value of forest resources will be further improved. If the bottleneck problem of raw materials can be gradually alleviated through multiple approaches, the sustainable development ability of the whole industry will be improved

improve industry access barriers and realize industrial economies of scale. The policy puts forward specific requirements for the technical level, financial strength, credibility, content of development planning and the initial scale of a single production line of new and expanded pulping projects of domestic and foreign investors who have entered the paper industry. At the same time, the ton products of the new project must reach the advanced level in terms of COD emission, water intake and comprehensive energy consumption. The paper industry has the characteristics of capital and technology intensive and significant economies of scale. The improvement of industry access barriers will help the industry achieve economies of scale and improve industry efficiency

prevent industrial monopoly. According to the policy, the domestic market share of a single paper type of a single enterprise (Group) shows that: there is a rate of more than 35% in the experimental process, and no further application for approval or filing of the paper type construction project is allowed; The total production capacity of paper and paperboard of a single enterprise (Group) exceeds 20% of the total consumption of the domestic market in the current year, and no further application for approval or filing of pulp and paper projects is allowed. At present, the possible monopolies in China mainly include Jindong coated paper, nine dragons and Liwen boxboard paper. The development strategy of such enterprises may be adjusted according to this provision. At present, the actual market share of Huatai Paper is 20%, and there is still 70% room for improvement

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